Our shire's challenges

There are a range of challenges facing Northern Grampians Shire both now and into the near future. The identification of these challenges and potential opportunities have helped shape council's current advocacy priorities.

 

Ageing population

Like many rural areas, Northern Grampians Shire faces challenges related to an ageing population and the out-migration of younger residents to larger cities for education and employment opportunities.

An ageing population places higher demands on healthcare and aged care services. In rural and remote areas, access to healthcare and aged care services is often already limited. Many elderly residents live alone contributing to concerns about isolation and loneliness, which are exacerbated by unmet needs for formal assistance. This demographic shift is shaping local priorities such as healthcare, social services and accessible community infrastructure, particularly given the growing prevalence of age-related health conditions.

Housing shortage

Northern Grampians Shire faces a critical housing shortage that is significantly impacting businesses’ ability to attract and retain qualified workers, particularly in sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing and agriculture.

The region’s low housing vacancy rate (0.17%) forces many workers to commute from neighbouring areas, hindering economic and population growth and contributing to an ageing demographic and limiting regional economic growth. 

Increasing housing supply and diversifying housing stock are essential to making the shire an attractive place to live and work. The population of Northern Grampians Shire is expected to grow by 16% by 2051, necessitating 1,064 new homes and a 18% increase in housing stock. 

Vulnerability to natural disasters

Northern Grampians Shire has been subject to several recent extreme weather events including floods (2022), droughts (2024-2025), bushfires and extreme heat (summer 2024-2025). These events have had significant impacts on the community, health, the economy and the environment. 

The direct impacts of climate change such as extreme heat, bushfires, droughts and floods, are not the only threats to communities. These events also lead to indirect effects such as changes in water quality, food safety, air quality and land use. Together these direct and indirect impacts affect key social determinants of health including housing, education, socioeconomic status and food security. As a result, a range of health issues emerge such as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and mental illness. 

Community health and wellbeing impacts

Limited access to community health and wellbeing services are creating significant challenges for the local community. Data shows Northern Grampians Shire has higher levels of chronic disease and obesity, alcohol-related incidents, self-reported fair or poor health, higher rates of psychological distress and with lower levels of psychology services compared to that of Western Victoria or Victoria as a whole. 

Educational attainment in our shire lags behind the state average, with only 37.9% of the population having completed year 12 or its equivalent compared to 59.5% in Victoria. The number of young people who are not in paid work or enrolled in any education is almost double the Victorian average for 15 to 19-year-olds.

Family violence rates are also significantly higher than the state average with 3077 incidents per 100,000 people, compared to that of 1418 across Victoria. 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ SEIFA Index of Relative Social Advantage and Disadvantage also ranks Northern Grampians Shire as the sixth-most disadvantaged Local Government Area in Victoria. This disadvantage contributes to preventable differences in health and makes it harder to access things that support good health such as safe places to exercise, healthy food and appropriate medical care. 

Renewable energy projects

The Victorian State Government is transitioning from coal-powered energy generation to renewable energy sources. Northern Grampians Shire is at the forefront of that transition for several reasons. 

Along with other parts of Victoria, our shire is seen as being a naturally rich wind zone making it a high-interest location for potential renewable energy projects. Additionally, there are two proposed transmission lines passing through the shire, the Western Renewable Link (WRL) and the Victorian New South Wales Interconnector (VNI). Given these developments, the Victorian Government has identified a large portion of the shire within the Western Renewable Energy Zone. 

The uncertainty, complexity and lack of genuine consultation (including with local government) have led to mistrust and anxiety within our communities. This compounds with other mental health and wellbeing stressors for communities including floods, droughts, bushfire and cost of living pressures.  

Victoria’s renewable energy transition presents opportunities to attract regional investment and diversify local economies. Opportunities also exist to improve the supply of housing, community services, infrastructure and the road network, however balancing these opportunities with the protection of agriculture and community wellbeing remains a critical challenge for council. 

Financial viability

As a small rural council, we have long operated under significant financial constraints. This is largely due to our expansive geographic footprint, a dispersed population across the shire and a low rating base. We also manage one of the largest infrastructure networks per capita in the region with over $44,000 worth of assets per resident. 

A range of pressures are compounding our financial challenges, including: 

  • Operating under a rate-capped environment; 
  •  Rising inflation and material costs; 
  •  Reduced state and federal funding opportunities; 
  •  Widening funding and asset renewal gaps; 
  •  A changing and ageing demographic; and 
  •  Increased staffing needs to meet emerging demands. 

Council revenue is not keeping pace with the increasing costs associated with maintaining ageing infrastructure. Our current budget only covers 45% of the projected work required. While community expectations for service and infrastructure remain high, our ability to meet these needs is increasingly constrained by factors beyond our control. As a result, we are very reliant on state and federal grant funding to not only maintain, replace and upgrade the infrastructure we already have, but to provide the level of services our community expects into the future. 

Economic diversification and business growth

Northern Grampians Shire has a diverse economy built largely on healthcare, agriculture and manufacturing. While these service industries contribute significantly to the local economy and employment, there is a need for continued diversification of the local economy to ensure long-term sustainability and job creation. There are significant existing workforce capacity challenges, labour shortages and skills gaps that are a result of long-term low unemployment, very high labour participation, and an ageing workforce.